Israeli soldiers work among tanks, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, in northern Israel, September 27, 2024. REUTERS/Ayal Margolin ISRAEL OUT.
Oct. 7 changed the Middle East forever. And still, it is not Oct. 8.
I’m heading back to Israel as the one-year anniversary of Oct. 7 swiftly moves upon us. To put it mildly, a lot has happened in nearly one year. The ensuing war has claimed tens of thousands of lives. A countless number of rockets have been fired and airstrikes have been carried out. Some hostages have come home while many have not. Seemingly innumerable cease-fire deals have fizzled at the negotiating table.
And yet, for all that has happened, the proverbial page has not been turned. We have not entered a new world or seen the dawn of a new day. It is, for all intents and purposes, still Oct. 7 for many in the region.
But that doesn’t mean things haven’t changed. In fact, the landscape looks different every week.
One year ago, the Houthis in Yemen were perceived to be a joke of a group. Now, the U.S. Navy is warning the whole world to take them seriously. Just this week they demonstrated their missiles can reach Tel Aviv and central Israel: a previous impossibility, or at the very least a never-before-seen capability.
One year ago, Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel were considered an afterthought by many in the international community. Perhaps nothing more than the Lebanese-based group showing solidarity with their ally, Hamas, in Gaza. After a year of back-and-forth, including the displacement of tens of thousands in both Israel and Lebanon, the Israel Defense Forces told its troops to be prepared for a ground operation in Lebanon: a potential measure that has President Joe Biden frantically looking for an off-ramp. As we speak, conversations are taking place around the world to see if there’s a way to avoid an all-out war.
Yes, the region is still right where it was a year ago: at the brink.
But today, the brink looks all the more treacherous.
From our contacts on the ground, sentiments are mixed. There are many residents in northern Israel who say “enough is enough.” They want to be able to return to their homes, get their children back in school and think the IDF should have upped the ante eight months ago. To them, war has a green light.
One person we’ve worked with closely actually fought in the last war in Lebanon and found himself boots on the ground in the fighting fray. He recognizes Hezbollah has a completely different set of capabilities than Hamas with its large arsenal of missiles and believes war would be messy and lead to a significant loss of life. Nevertheless, he’s subscribed to it being an inevitability.
And then there are those who believe war must be avoided for fear the costs are too high. They believe the best-case scenario is their lives are upended in such a severe manner it dwarfs the war in Gaza. Gone would be the images of Israelis flocking to the beach as IDF forces push deeper into Gaza just 50 miles south. They believe it would be a much more dangerous day-to-day reality with Hezbollah.
But the worst-case scenario, in their minds, would be Iran getting involved. Iran has reportedly told Hezbollah it’s not interested in striking Israel at the moment, but that could change.
That’s also not to mention the other actors in the region operating in Iraq and Syria. Just this week, a drone slammed into the port city of Eilat before Israel’s defense systems could intercept it.
That’s why diplomacy is happening in real time around the globe. It’s not about what happens next month or next week, but right now. As I write this, my phone is sitting next to my computer pinging me with alerts of rocket and drone launches.
The minutes, hours and days ahead will largely dictate what the foreseeable future looks like. I’ll have more from the Middle East when I’m back on the ground next week.
A lot can happen between now and then.
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