A banner featuring a portrait of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is being hung next to an Iranian flag during a funeral for him and his bodyguard Abu Shaaban in Tehran, Iran, on August 1, 2024. Ismail Haniyeh and his bodyguard, Abu Shaaban, are being killed in an air strike on Haniyeh's residence in northern Tehran the day after the inauguration ceremony of Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)
We’ve been talking about widespread tensions in the Middle East since Oct. 7, and yet the present moment feels like the apex.
First, a soccer field in the Golan Heights was struck in July, killing at least a dozen children and teens. While the Lebanese-based group Hezbollah denied responsibility, Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Hagari accused the group of “lying” and subsequently, the Israelis vowed to retaliate with force. They made good on their promise and killed a top Hezbollah leader in Beirut.
Subsequently, a strike killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month, though the Israelis have neither confirmed nor denied responsibility.
Iran nevertheless holds Israel responsible and has vowed to hit back in response. So far, they have not, although all indications point to this being an inevitability.
“I can say that we share the same concerns that our Israeli counterparts have,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. “An attack could happen potentially sometime this week. We're watching it very closely.”
The key questions are:
How heavy will Iran hit?
Is the next play substantial enough to ignite wider conflict in the region?
Forecasting the Middle East is like looking into a crystal ball bought and paid for at a drugstore. What comes next and when is anyone’s guess.
On the ground:
I am currently on the campaign trail following Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump across the country but have been trying to keep in close contact with many of my sources in Israel.
One, who I have personally spent much time with across Israel, said this:
“On one hand, everything is going on as usual. On the other hand, some (things) are on hold. (Many flights) in August are cancelled when everybody is going on vacations and it’s very disturbing.”
That contact also went on to say that many of the GPS systems across the country are down. Everyday amenities like Apple Maps are inoperable as a part of the present situation.
Another contact, a former senior official in the IDF who just left his post and returned to civilian life, has been adamant with me for months that a greater conflict will not happen. Bottom line, he contends nobody rational in either Israel or Iran wants to see this explode.
He does, however, believe Iran has put itself in a position where it cannot walk away.
“I think that they bound themselves very early and now have to attack, but are very aware of their own limitation, Israel’s defense capabilities. And, most important, the Iranians fear the retaliation.”
Word of the day:
Brinkmanship (noun)
or less commonly brinksmanship
Definition: the art or practice of pushing a dangerous situation or confrontation to the limit of safety especially to force a desired outcome (Source: Merriam-Webster).
A show of force:
The United States is adding more firepower to the region as U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to the Central Command area of responsibility. It will be joining the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, which is currently operating in the Red Sea.
Additionally, the USS Georgia, an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine, has been ordered from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea as well.
When all is said and done, the United States will have a massive naval presence in the region that it hopes will help deter any further escalation.
The Houthis won’t quit:
I remember back in October when the general train of thought was that the Houthis in Yemen were an incapable, ragtag operation and posed little to no threat to Israel or the globe.
Fast forward to today, the group has captured a ship, sunk a shi, and killed multiple sailors. The group has vowed to attack American, British, and Israeli ships, but many of the targets to date have had no relation to any of those countries and were guilty of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. For example, a Liberian-flagged oil tanker in the Red Sea reportedly came under attack three times Tuesday.
And so, the group persists in its efforts to destabilize the region. Just this week, CENTCOM shot down UAVs flying over Houthi-controlled territory and the Red Sea, knocked out a Houthi missile launch site and also destroyed a pair of vessels that “presented a clear and imminent threat to U.S. and coalition forces.”
When the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower was operating in the region, we had the opportunity to come on board and see the U.S. Navy’s efforts for ourselves.
The big takeaway hammered into us by the U.S. Navy is that the world has underestimated the group. The weapons they are using are some of the most advanced to be fired in the history of modern warfare, and the USS Laboon became the first ship to shoot down an anti-ship ballistic missile in combat in history.
And because the Red Sea is responsible for 30% of the world’s container traffic and serves as a major artery between Europe, Africa and Asia, global commerce and worldwide consumers bear the consequences.
Adding to that, officials with the United Nations say a human rights office in the capital of Sanaa was stormed by the group with materials inside including documents and vehicles seized.
Point being: this won’t be going away anytime soon.
And one more thing…
My good friend Trey Yingst, who I firmly believe is the best Foreign Correspondent covering the Middle East today, just announced the upcoming release of his new book Black Saturday taking readers into the heart of the October 7th attack in southern Israel. I just pre-ordered my copy and if you wish to do so as well, the link to the Amazon page can be found below.
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