An RAF Typhoon FGR4 aircraft prepares to take-off to conduct further strikes against Houthi targets, February 3, 2024. Cpl Samantha Drummee/UK MOD/Handout via REUTERS
Leave it to Austria’s Foreign Minister, Alexander Schallenberg, to sum up the situation so pointedly.
“This is a powder keg, the whole Middle East, and there are too many people running around with matches,” Schallenberg said.
It’s hardly an alarmist or isolated statement. Egypt’s foreign minister warned this week of the Middle Eastern conflict expanding. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is back in the region this week to bring the temperature down while insisting the U.S. does not want yet another war.
And yet, here we are. No shortage of posturing. No shortage of tension. And no signs of anybody going quietly.
The consummate example starts with the Houthis in Yemen who refuse to yield to the U.S. and U.K.
Let’s contextualize this by looking at the last few days.
On Saturday, British and American forces carried out a joint operation in Yemen and struck over 30 different targets. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak wore the grand strategy on his sleeve: de-escalation through strength.
“Our overall aim is to de-escalate tensions in the region to see a restoration of security and stability,” Sunak said. “Diplomatically, we will work towards that goal. But, obviously if we do face the risk of innocent lives we will respond.”
Since those strikes?
Sunday, Central Command says they “conducted a strike in self-defense against a Houthi land attack cruise missile” and “struck four anti-ship cruise missiles, all of which were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea.”
Monday, U.S. Central Command forces “conducted a strike in self-defense against two Houthi explosive uncrewed surface vehicles (USV). U.S. forces identified the explosive USVs in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined they presented an imminent threat to U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region.”
Tuesday, the Houthis took responsibility for six more missiles fired against commercial ships.
It doesn’t take a semester at West Point to see that, so far, the U.S. and U.K. have been unable to de-escalate the situation in Yemen.
Now, shift the focus to Iraq and Syria where the U.S. struck Iranian-backed militias. Over 80 targets hit this past Friday. President Biden came out and said, “If you harm an American, we will respond.”
The Iraqi Prime Minister’s office says at least 16 were killed and slammed the U.S. for violating their sovereignty. (Aside: It’s worth noting that while the U.S. initially said they gave Iraq a heads up, the Pentagon walked that back and said they alerted Iraqi leadership immediately after).
What’s been the fallout since?
Multiple attacks against U.S. service members according to the Pentagon, including an attack on a base in Eastern Syria that had U.S. troops on it and killed six Kurdish fighters. No casualties to Americans.
The U.S. has left the door open for more strikes in the region as well, with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan saying, “This was the beginning of our response. There will be more steps. Some of those steps will be seen. Some may not be, but there will be more action taken to respond to the tragic death of the three brave U.S. service members.”
Nevertheless, American officials still hold that Iran is the effective “man behind the curtain.” President Biden already said he held them responsible for the deaths of three U.S. service members as Iran funds and backs many of these militias.
“Iran’s proxies have played with fire for months and years and it’s now burning them,” said Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.
Iran, to no surprise, is hitting back and rebuking the West at the U.N. this week.
“The US and UK made another desperate attempt to distract attention away from the root cause of the current situation in the region by falsely putting the finger and blame on Iran,” said Amir Saeid Iravani, Permanent Representative of Iran to the United Nations. “It is regretful that the United States, a permanent member of the Security Council, has failed to fulfill its obligation under the UN Charter. The US expressed grave concern about the spillover of tension in the region while continuing to play a destabilizing role in the region."
Whether it’s Iran, the U.S., U.K., or any country with skin in the game, everybody is digging their heels in.
The same can be said between Israel and Hamas as these hostage talks hit another week. If only we had a nickel for every time we heard the word “progress” used, or the negotiations described as “constructive.”
The sticking point has not changed: Hamas wants Israel to withdraw its troops from Gaza. Israel says they won’t do that until Hamas has been destroyed; an effective stalemate in talks.
As such, Israel says they will continue with the war effort and are setting their sights on Rafah in Southern Gaza as the next major city to besiege.
Here’s the bottom line and an important rule in understanding global affairs: Every sovereign state has their own set of self interests and each one sees the world differently.
Despite what the U.S. says, most countries in the Middle East trace all tensions in the region back to the war in Gaza.
Almost everyone outside of Israel and Palestine believes the road to long term peace begins with a two-state solution in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia says they won’t open diplomatic ties with Israel until the Palestinian statehood issue is resolved.
The first step down that road is ending the war.
The war won’t end until there’s a ceasefire deal that involves the release of hostages.
Neither Israel nor Hamas is willing to end the war if it involves overly compromising.
That’s where we are now. What comes next?
The Houthis say they will continue attacking ships in the Red Sea as long as the war in Gaza continues.
Similarly, many Iranian-backed militias say they won’t stop attacking U.S. troops in the Middle East.
And, by that same token, British and American forces say they won’t halt counter measures until the attacks stop.
Are you tired of following along yet?
Here’s the spark notes using Mr. Schallenberg’s analogy:
Everybody’s got their matches out and nobody’s putting them away until someone blinks.
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